Global dynamics and Impact of Gaussian noise intensity on the stochastic epidemic model with local fractional derivative

Society must understand, model, and forecast infectious disease transmission patterns in order to prevent pandemics. Mathematical models and computer technology may help us better understand the pandemic and create more systematic and effective infection management strategies. This study offers a novel perspective through a compartmental model that incorporates fractional calculus. The first scenario is based on proportional fractional definitions, considering compartmental individuals of susceptible, moving susceptible, exposed, infected, hospitalized, and recovered. Through an extension of this derivative, they decimated the model to integer order. We extended the deterministic model to a stochastic extension to capture the uncertainty or variance in disease transmission. It can develop an appropriate Lyapunov function to detect the presence and uniqueness of positive global solutions. Next, we discuss how the epidemic model might have become extinct. In our theoretical study, we demonstrated that a sufficiently outrageous amount of noise can cause a disease to become extinct. A modest level of noise, on the other hand, promotes the persistence of diseases and their stationary distribution. The Khasminskii method was used to determine the stationary distribution and ergodicity of the model.

Daptomycin Induced Eosinophilic Pneumonia

Introduction: Daptomycin is an antibiotic approved by FDA in 2003 with an excellent coverage for Gram positive cocci including methicillin resistant Staph. Aureus and vancomycin resistant Enterococci.Acute Eosinophilic Pneumonia(AEP) is a rare but potentially fatal complication of daptomycin is characterized by febrile illness, Hypoxemia,Diffuse Bilateral pulmonary infiltrates and BAL with >25% eosinophils. Case Report: 79 Y/O M with the CKD stage 4 and hypertension presented to the hospital with fever, dry cough and worsening shortness of breath after a recent hospital admission for MRSA bacteremia.Patient was admitted 1 week before presentation for symptoms of pyelonephritis and was found to have MRSA bacteremia for which he was discharged on IV daptomycin for 6 weeks. On admission,patient was febrile with hypoxic to 81%. Labs did show leukocytosis with mild peripheral eosinophilia.PCR for respiratory viruses including covid was negative.Chest X ray was done, which was consistent with multifocal Pneumonia which was followed by Chest CT scan which demonstrated new bilateral dense ground-glass and consolidative opacities.Given concerns for aspiration pneumonia, fungal infections or eosinophilic pneumonitis,pulmonology was consulted for possible bronchoscopy.Bronchoscopy with BAL was done the next day.BAL revealed a WBC of 260/μL with 45% eosinophilic predominance. Given the bronchoscopy results,his symptoms were attributed to Daptomycin related eosinophilic pneumonia.Patient was started on 40mg oral prednisone for a total of 4 weeks with rapid taper.Over the hospital course, his symptoms completely resolved. Discussion: The prosed mechanism involves presentation of drug or drug-hapten combination by the macrophages to the T helper cell results in interleukin-5 release which along with macrophage released eotaxin, results in eosinophilic migration to lungs.The criteria for to diagnose AEP due to daptomycin consist of 4 components which includes febrile illness,hypoxemia,diffuse bilateral pulmonary infiltrates and BAL with >25% eosinophils.Peripheral eosinophilia may not be present in all cases. It is also possible that daptomycin, a renally excreted drug, persists in the lungs of patients with renal dysfunction as seen in our patient and as such may lead to higher incidence of daptomycin induced AEP.In most cases, a short course of steroids(2-3 weeks)is sufficient for complete resolution of symptoms. Conclusion: Daptomycin induced AEP is increasingly seen in patients with high doses of drug and underlying renal dysfunction,and not related to therapy duration as it can occur as early as day 3 of treatment and as late as week 6 of treatment course. Bronchoscopy with BAL should be considered in all cases suspected. (Figure Presented).

Title Favipiravir for the Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019;A Propensity Score Matched Cohort Study

Background. We investigated clinical outcomes of favipiravir in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods. Patients who between 23 May 2020 and 18 July 2020 received ≥24 hours of favipiravir were assigned to the favipiravir group, while those who did not formed the non-favipiravir group. The primary outcome was 28-day clinical improvement, defined as two-category improvement from baseline on an 8-point ordinal scale. Propensity scores (PS) for favipiravir therapy were used for 1:1 matching. Cox regression was used to examine associations with the primary endpoint. Results. The unmatched cohort included 1,493 patients, of which 51.7% were in the favipiravir group, and 48.3% were not receiving supplemental oxygen at baseline (table 1). Favipiravir was started within a median of 5 days from symptoms onset. Significant baseline differences between the two unmatched groups existed, but not between the PSmatched groups (N = 774) (table 1). After PS-matching, there were no significant differences between the two groups in the proportion with 28-day clinical improvement (93.3% versus 92.8%, P 0.780), or 28-day all-cause mortality (2.1% versus 3.1%, P 0.360) (Table 2). Favipiravir was associated with more viral clearance by day 28 (79.8% versus 64.1%, P < 0.001) (table 2). In the adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, favipiravir therapy was not associated 28-day clinical improvement (adjusted hazard ratio 0.978, 95% confidence interval 0.862 -1.109, P 0.726) (Table 3). Conclusion. Favipiravir therapy for COVID-19 pneumonia is well tolerated but is not associated with an increased likelihood of clinical improvement or reduced allcause mortality by 28 days.